Research Portfolio on the Future of Biodiversity
These images from the research below broadly confirm a
spread from 33% overall extinction by 2100 to 66% under business as usual.
These are thus realistic rule of thumb triage estimates. Aiming for 33% is a
soft landing and achievable. Top left: Predicted loss of mitochondrial
cytochrome c oxidase subunit I haplotypes for nine montane aquatic insect
species in Europe under business as usual IPCC 2080 CO2 emission scenario (Bálint et al. 2011).
Top right: Comparison of recent and distant past extinction rates with
rates at which species are “committed to extinction” during the 21st century
(Pereira et al. 2010) has a a broader spread ranging from 15% up to 70. Bottom
left: Map of expected change in biodiversity for the year 2100 under
antagonistic interaction between drivers such as climate and habitat loss when
the total biodiversity change equals the change resulting from the driver that
is expected to have the largest effect and is calculated as the maximum of the
effects of all the drivers (Sala et al. 2000).
All of the key tropical rainforest would be seriously affected. Bottom
right: Estimated recent and future global biodiversity trends resulting from
land-use change, with and without coordinated efforts to reverse trends (Leclère et al. 2020).
Habitat effects on their own contribute up to 20% loss in diversity
(grey) unless adequate measures are taken (ochre). Mean extinction probability
across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change
suggest a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas
empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14% (MacLean et al. 2011).
Below
is my current Research Portfolio on the Future of Biodiversity. All the live-linked articles are password protected with the
common password model so that you can access them for
research purposes only. These are purely for research use and not to be distributed.
This
resource is deemed essential for the group to be able to assess the actual risk
significance of the impending mass extinction so you can decide for yourself
(1) whether this action is warranted and (2) the best strategies to achieve it.
If
we are attempting to take a position on the need for saving the diversity of
life, we need to be clear about the scientific evidence. I have thus spent the
last two days making a more detailed research reference set for the future of
biodiversity.
The
detailed list of articles confirms we need to protect 30-50% of the Earth to
protect the diversity of life. Others note that mammal diversity will take
millions of years to recover. Predictions to 2100 are extremely volatile,
because different drivers such as climate and habitat loss do not have reliable
modelling about how they interact, making long-term predictions to 2100 highly
unstable. The cryptic loss article illustrates how climate alone will reduce
adaptive genetic diversity within species
Biodiversity Futures to 2100
Nature's Dangerous Decline Unprecedented Species Extinction Rates Accelerating
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity
with commentary from the BBC, Nature, Guardian, New York Times, Washington Post and CNN
COP15: Kunming-Montreal Global biodiversity framework decision 2023
Convention of Biological Diversity 2020
RECOMMENDATION ADOPTED BY THE OPEN-ENDED WORKING GROUP ON THE POST- 2020 GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY FRAMEWORK
Research
Articles
Greenspoon L et al. (2023) The global biomass of wild mammals PNAS 120/10 e2204892120 doi:10.1073/pnas.2204892120.
Le Page M (2018) Half the planet
should be set aside for wildlife – to save ourselves New
Scientist 13-9-2018
Baillie
J & Zhang Y (2018) Space
for nature Science
DOI:10.1126/science.aau1397.
Lambert J (2020) How much space does nature need? 30
percent of the planet may not be enough Sci. News. 22-4-2020.
Bar-On Y, Phillips R & Milo R (2018) The
biomass distribution on Earth PNAS
doi:10.1073/pnas.1711842115.
Davis M, Faurby S & Senning J (2018) Mammal diversity
will take millions of years to recover from the current biodiversity crisis PNAS
doi:10.1073/pnas.1804906115.
Dinerstein E et al. (2019) A Global Deal For Nature: Guiding principles, milestones, and targets PNAS
Bradshaw C et al. (2021) Underestimating
the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future Front. Conserv. Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fcosc.2020.615419.
Burke K et al. (2018) Pliocene and
Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates PNAS doi/10.1073/pnas.1809600115.
Di Marco M (2019) Wilderness areas
halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1567-7
Leclère D
et al. (2020) Bending the curve
of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy Nature Res. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y
Sala O et al. (2000) Global
Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100 Science 287
1770-1774 doi:10.1126/science.287.5459.1770.
Ed. (2011) Biodiversity on
the brink Nature Clim. Ch. 1
MacLean M & Wilson R (2011) Recent ecological responses to
climate change support predictions of high extinction risk PNAS doi:10.1073/pnas.1017352108.
Collevatti R et al. (2011) Range shift and
loss of genetic diversity under climate change in Caryocar brasiliense, a
Neotropical tree species Tree
Genetics & Genomes (2011) 7:1237–1247 DOI
10.1007/s11295-011-0409-z.
Rodolfo-Metalpa R et al. (2011) Coral and mollusc resistance to
ocean acidification adversely affected by warming Nature Clim. Ch. DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1200.
Wilhelm
S & Boyer G (2011) Healthy
competition Nature Clim. Ch. 1 300.
Hill S et al. (2018) Worldwide impacts
of past and projected future land-use change on local species richness and the
Biodiversity Intactness Index bioRxiv doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/311787.
Bálint M et al. (2011) Cryptic
biodiversity loss linked to global climate change
Nature Clim. Ch. DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1191
Cobben M et al. (2011) Projected climate
change causes loss and redistribution of neutral genetic diversity in a model
metapopulation of a medium-good disperser doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06713.x.
Beyer R & Manica A (2020) Historical and
projected future range sizes of the world’s mammals, birds, and amphibians Nature Comms. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19455-9.
Linklater W (2017) Biodiversity
conservation in 2100 https://sciblogs.co.nz/politecol/2017/11/10/biodiversity-conservation-2100/
Pereira H et al. (2010) Scenarios for
Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century
Science 330 1496 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1196624.
Rinnan S & Jetz W (2020) Terrestrial
conservation opportunities and inequities revealed by global multi-scale
prioritization bioRxiv https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.05.936047.
Major
Works
Leakey
Richard, Lewin Roger (1996) The
Sixth Extinction: Patterns of Life and the Future
of Mankind Anchor NY.
Kolbert
E (2014) The
Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History Henry
Holt & Co. NY.
Kolbert
E (2021) Under a White Sky: The Nature of the
Future Crown NY.
Elizabeth
Kolbert Article1 Article2 Article3 Article4 Article5 Article6 Article7 Article8 Article9
Wilson E O (2016) Half-Earth: Our Planet's Fight
for Life W W Norton.